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SAMPLE BROCHURE ForewordRenewables are considered one of the primary fuels to satisfy the world’s growing energy demand and wind is a vital component. Many countries are looking-to offshore as a more beneficial effective environmentto harvest larger volumes of wind energy. Historically, offshore wind farms are primarily developed with ‘Bottom-fixed’ structures in relatively shallow water, near-to-shore. As 80% of the globes strongest windresources lie in waters beyond the reach of Bottom-fixed (~60m), Floating wind technology is increasingly accepted as ‘the future’ of offshore wind
Over the long-term, Floating wind is projected to become a critical component of the energy mix. The pace and rhythm of this nascent market is profound, with upward projections of potentially 180 GW of installedcapacity by 2050, comprising nearly 13,000 floating turbine units. As Floating wind is truly a global opportunity ramping-up for commercialization across six to ten distinct markets, Quest Floating Wind Energy (QFWE) along with our may collaborators champion Floating wind to deliver its ultimate potential
Quest Floating Wind Energy is passionate about the ultimate potential for Floating wind and the force of influence it will demonstrate over time across the renewables landscape. This report entitled 2021 GlobalFloating Wind Energy Market and Forecast Report, Volume 3, focuses exclusively on the Floating wind segment within the global offshore wind market. Please note that Q FWE also maintains comprehensivemarket intelligence, project data and reports on the global offshore Bottom-fixed wind market, so we are your GO TO source for continual, in-depth analysis on offshore wind
I would like to extend my sincere thanks and appreciation to the entire Q FWE team for their collective work in creating our proprietary CapEx/LCoE Cost Model and Q Vision database architecture which drives themajority of this reports Quantitative and Qualitative market analysis
We look forward to exploring ‘the Floating’ journey with you! This comprehensive 115-page market report dedicated to Floating wind illustrates the tremendous market opportunities globally across the supply chain over the next ~15 years including the most active developers, potential market size, pertinent project activity detailsFebruary 2021 and other vital metrics illustrated by region and construction timeline
Sugar Land, TX USAGFLF Volume 3 2 Report Findings• Over the long-term, Floating wind is projected to become a critical component of the energy • We observe that moving forward, Developers are mainly de-coupled from technology and mix. The pace and rhythm of this nascent market is profound, with upward projections of now start each early development project with an agnostic-based technology approach; this potentially 180 GW of installed capacity by 2050, comprising nearly 13,000 floating turbine results in each company working with a variety of Floater designs and designers as illustrated units. Floating wind is a global opportunity ramping-up for commercialization across six to in our reports’ section 5.0 featuring an infographic of “Developers’ Floater Technology DNA”
ten distinct markets and Quest Floating Wind Energy (Q FWE) fully expects Floating to be the largest growth component over the long-term possibly outpacing Bottom-fixed into the • Over the forecast period analyzing contract awards to 2030 and beyond, Quest has identified future. In 2023 to 2024, the accelerated pace of contract awards are projected to surge to projects representing more than 26.2 GW of Floating wind scheduled for commissioning nearly $32 billion followed by more than $16 billion in orders over 2025 to 2026. worldwide to 2035, a number that will grow exponentially following the addition of newly sanctioned projects and accelerated commercialization
• Floating wind's early years were based on pioneering technology that was recognized by only a few 'developers', mostly of a utility background. The initial projects to prove the • Five super-sized Floating offshore wind projects currently ‘Under development’, each ranging technology, so called ‘Demonstrators', were undertaken with support of such early adapters. between $800 million and $2 billon in CapEx, represent a growing share (7%) of the $96 The maturation stage that followed saw entry of large 'offshore energy' companies and large billion total addressable market of presently identified Under Development, Planned and 'traditional’ onshore and offshore wind developers with long histories in project Possible projects
development - a process that very much continues
• As illustrated in the report’s figures, the offshore Floating wind market to 2035 is sizeable• The offshore Floating wind industry has come a very long way in just a few years delivering representing $96 billion in CapEx for forecast wind power capacity additions of 26,207 MW new floater designs, scaled Demonstrators, Pre-Commercial projects and new players. to be powered by 2,656 Floating Turbine Units (FTUs)
Floating wind is a young industry with 15 units currently online representing nine projects and a decade of work. Equinor has designed and developed six of these while Aker Offshore • Worldwide spending by supply chain segment over the forecast period consist of $36.4 Wind / Principle Power have deployed four, Ideol two and one design each for IHI, Mitsui and billion for Turbines, $22.5 billion for Substructures, $14.7 billion for Mooring Systems, $11.6 Toda, installed off Japan. The wind industry continues to deliver value to enhance wind’s billion for Subsea Power Cables and over $2 billion in Installation activities
cost competitiveness and efficiency with steady improvements in the Levelized Cost of • Current tenders for commercial-scale Floating offshore wind farms, in a number of key Electricity (LCoE). Since 2016, offshore wind particularly has pushed LCoE reductions well in regions, are accelerating the potential for rapid growth. As an example, the ongoing excess of 60%.
ScotWind seabed licensing round will include a carve-out for floating projects in Scottish waters. ScotWind awards are expected to be announced during the first half of 2021. It is estimated that 10 new sites will eventually be chosen for wind farm developments
GFLF Volume 3 3 Report Findings - Continued• The Floating opportunity pipeline continues to gain momentum. A year-over-year comparison (Jan. 2021 vs. Jan. 2020) to our Floating wind outlook reveals Double Digit increases with the number of Projects up 61% while the total number of Units gaining by 25% and Total MW rising 14%
• Likewise, CapEx gains of nearly $33 billion new projects surging in Asia Pacific and Northern Europe with spending increases of $19 billion and $17 billion, respectively. In Asia, there are nearly 6 GW of projects earmarked for South Korea alone led by these Developers: TOTAL Energies, Ocean Winds/Aker Offshore Wind, Equinor, MOTIE and Shell/CoensHexicon
• According to Quest FWE’s proprietary Q Vision database, near-to-medium-term projects account for 1,000 cumulative Floating units with about 750 projected to be online between 2025-2026; CapEx is led by Asia/Pacific with $25.2 billion, Northern Europe with $11.3 billion, USA-Pacific with $6.2 billion, Southern Europe with $2.4 billion and USA-Atlantic $300 million
GFLF Volume 3 4 Ta b l e o f C o n t e n t s1. Q FWEconomics - Macro Market Perspective 16-29 3. Contract Award Opportunities 2020 to 2035e 37-48 I. Sustainability $ ESG Are Permanent Fixtures 17 I. Bottom-fixed and Floating Wind Are a $541 Billion Opportunity 38 II. Renewable Technologies Create Strong Job Growth 18 II. Floating Wind is a $96 Billion Opportunity 39 III. Global Context, the Energy Transition 19 III. Floating Turbines are a $24 Billion Opportunity 40 IV. Rapid Penetration Rate for Renewables 20 IV. Floating Turbine Awards by Supplier and Capacity 41 V. Renewables are Fueling Electricity Production 21 V. Wind Turbine Group Selection Criteria 42 VI. Wind Drives Growth in Power Generation 22 VI. Floating Fabrication is a $21 Billion Opportunity 43 VII. Wind and Solar Expand Quickly in Power Sector 23 VII. Floating Fabrication Contracts in Northern Europe and AsiaPac 44 VIII. Renewables Deliver Sharp, Accelerated Capacity Additions 24 VIII. Floater Designs and Mooring Systems 45 IX. Technology Improvements are Raising Offshore Wind’s Productivity 25 IX. Mooring Systems are a $15 Billion Opportunity 46 X. Future Growth Underpinned by Falling Development Costs 26 X. Asia Pacific Mooring Systems’ Contract Opportunities 47 XI. Floating Wind’s Levelized Cost of Energy in $/MWh 27 XI. Subsea Power Cables are a $7 Billion Opportunity 48 XII. The European Union and China Drive Offshore Capacity Additions 28 XIII. Offshore Wind Holds Enormous Potential 292. Float’s Long-term Opportunity to ~2050e 30-36 I. A Surge in Wind Turbine Scale and Capacity 31 II. Cumulative Floating Offshore Wind 2021 to 2035e 32 III. Huge Potential Defined for Floating Wind 2009 to 2050e 33 IV. The Floating Opportunity Pipeline, Momentum Is Gaining 34-36GFLF Volume 3 11 Ta b l e o f C o n t e n t s - Continued4. Floating Overview, Capacity Additions and CapEx 49 - 70 5. Developer and Floater Designer Overview 71 - 82 I. Global Overview 50-60 I. Developers’ Floater Technology DNA 72-74 a) Installed Capacity Cumulative Total MW by Country 51 a) Evolution of the Relation between Technology and Developers b) Online Floating Units by Project 52 II. Floating Outlook Map by Status and Regio 75 c) Online Floating Turbine Units (FTUs) Installed by Year 53 III. Floater Designers – Activity Outlook 76-82 d) Forecast Floating Projects in Total MW – 26,207 MW 54 a) Global Overview 76 e) Forecast Capacity Additions by Country 55 b) Asia/Pacific Recap 77-78 f) Worldwide Forecast CapEx by Status Year 56 c) Northern Europe Recap 79 g) Worldwide Forecast by Status and No. of Units 57 d) Southern Europe Recap 80 h) Worldwide Forecast by Supply Chain Segment 58 e) USA Pacific Recap 81 i) Seven-Year Comparisons – All Statuses 59-60 f) USA Atlantic Recap 82 II. Regional Outlook 61-70 a) Asia Pacific Forecast by Status and Country (11,108 MW) 62 6. Key Project Opportunities - A Focus on Size and Status 83- 115 b) Asia Pacific Forecast by Status and No. of Units 63 I. Global Review of CapEx, Under development, Planned and Possible 84 c) Asia Pacific Forecast by Supply Chain Segment 64 a) Global ‘Under development’ Projects by Name 85 d) Europe (N&S) Forecast by Status and Country - 10,842 MW 65 b) Global ‘Under development’ Project Details 86-87 e) Europe (N&S) Forecast by Status and No. of Units 66 c) Global ‘Planned’ Projects by Name 88 f) Europe (N&S) Forecast by Supply Chain Segment 67 d) Global ‘Planned’ Project Details 89 g) The Americas Forecast by Status and Country – 4,256 MW 68 e) Global ‘Possible’ Projects by Name 90 h) The Americas Forecast by Status and No. of Units 69 f) Global ‘Possible’ Project Details 91-92 i) The Americas Forecast by Supply Chain Segment 70GFLF Volume 3 12 Ta b l e o f C o n t e n t s - Continued6. Key Project Opportunities , continued … 7. Appendix, About Q FWE 116 - 129 II. Regional Outlook and Project Recap 93 - 115 I. Client Presentation 117 - 118 a) Asia/Pacific Project CapEx by segment 94 a) Who We Are 118 b) Asia/Pacific ‘Under development’ Projects by Name 95 b) What We Do 119 c) Asia/Pacific ‘Under development’ Project Details 96 II. Q Vision and Our Methodology 119 - 126 d) Asia/Pacific ‘Planned’ Projects by Name 97 a) Quest’s DN 120 e) Asia/Pacific ‘Planned’ Project Details 98 b) About Q Vision 121 f) Asia/Pacific ‘Possible’ Projects by Name 99 c) Floating Matter Expertise 122 g) Asia/Pacific ‘Possible’ Project Details 100 d) Uniqueness 123 h) Northern Europe Project CapEx 101 e) What’s in it for You 124 i) Southern Europe Project CapEx 102 f) How to Validate the Market Ahead 125 j) Europe (N&S) ‘Under development’ Projects by Name 103-104 g) The Dream Scenario – Be Ahead of the Curve 126 k) Europe (N&S) ‘Under development’ Project Details 105 l) Europe (N&S) ‘Planned’ Projects by Name 106 III. Our Consultancy Practice 127 – 128 m) Europe (N&S) ‘Planned’ Project Details . 107 IV. Contact Us 129 n) Europe (N&S) ‘Possible’ Projects by Name 108 o) Europe (N&S) ‘Possible’ Project Details 109-110 p) USA-Pacific & Atlantic Project CapEx 111 q) USA-Atlantic Projects by Name 112 r) USA-Atlantic Project Details 113 s) USA-Pacific Projects by Name 114 t) USA-Pacific Project Details 115 All sections refer to offshore Floating wind unless otherwise noted
GFLF Volume 3 13 Executive SummaryOur accelerated Energy Transition is being led from more aggressive stated Net Zero carbon emissions goals coupled with more influential economic and political factors along with shifts in societal preferences. Thisis matched by a corresponding increase in the role of renewable energy as the world increasingly electrifies. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) are drivers influencing our energy transition. In line withthat, 2020 has been the year of aggressive commitments to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050 for a large swath of companies. This group has been led by Europe’s largest integrated oil companies —Shell, BP,TOTAL Energies and Equinor. This group remains at the forefront of their peers, and they are transparent about transitioning to cleaner energy in the future
What does the energy transition mean to us?• The scale of this shift varies significantly across the three scenarios (Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual) outlined in BP’s Energy Outlook - 2020 edition. In ‘Rapid” (according to report), renewable energy sees increasing share towards 50% while the share of hydrocarbons in primary energy are shown declining to around 40% by 2050
• The global energy transition to a lower carbon footprint presents many opportunities across industries to tackle new challenges through innovation and applied technology. Renewables are set to penetrate the global energy system more rapidly compared to any other fuel in history
• Renewables led by wind, offshore wind and solar are growing exponentially and delivering bigger capacities and cheaper economic solutions
• Cheap renewable energy and batteries are remaking electricity systems globally and will take a growing share of power generation from fossil fuels which could reach parity well before 2050. Modern natural gas power plants can provide the flexibility needed to integrate more renewables into the grid
• Wind energy is a growing form of cheaper energy supply in many markets. According to the Global Wind Energy Council, wind capacity installations continue to outpace new fossil fuel capacity in multiple mature and emerging markets. In 2020, there were 5.2 GW of newly added global capacity additions for offshore wind (Bottom-fixed and Floating) bringing the total installed offshore wind capacity in operation to 32.5 GW
5 Executive Summary - Continued• Pundits’ projections for onshore wind indicate over 50 GW of installed wind capacity on an • On the Developer front, the last two years have seen accelerated initiatives by new annual basis in addition to more than 40 GW of offshore wind capacity additions each year in companies, joint ventures and other collaborations. These evolving players include the Sustainable Development Scenario. Meanwhile, Quest Floating Wind Energy’s rolling experienced utilities such as Iberdrola and EnBW Energie plus leading developers such as forecast of 400 presently identified projects representing more than 79,295 MW of offshore Orsted, Ocean Winds and Aker Offshore Wind. Increasingly, legacy oil and gas companies wind capacity - a number that will grow exponentially as newly sanctioned projects are (Equinor, Shell, TOTAL Energies and BP) are rapidly entering the sector with vast experience added to the forecast over time. in long-term capital-intensive projects and impeccable track records in risk management, project execution and complex logistics
• The top five offshore wind markets delivered over 30 GW of new capacity in 2020 led by the UK (10.4 GW), Germany (7.7 GW), China (7.1 GW), The Netherlands (2.6 GW) and Belgium (2.3 GW)
• South Korea’s Green New Deal, a pledge to invest billions in renewable energy and electric vehicles and phasing out coal by 2030, will drive the government’s plans to make South Korea “one of the world’s top five offshore wind energy powerhouses by 2030.” Of the 11.1 GW forecast for Asia Pacific by Quest Floating Wind Energy, there are nearly 6 GW of Floating wind projects earmarked for South Korea alone led by these Developers: TOTAL Energies, Ocean Winds/Aker Offshore Wind, Equinor, MOTIE and Shell/Coens/Hexicon
• The offshore Floating wind industry was in its infancy only six years ago, an 'inner circle' that met more naysayers than believers. This industry has come a very long way in just a few years delivering new floater designs, scaled Demonstrators, Pre-Commercial projects and new players. Floating wind is a young industry with 15 units currently online representing nine projects and a decade of work. Equinor has designed and developed six of these while Aker Offshore Wind / Principle Power have deployed four, Ideol two and one design each for IHI, Mitsui and Toda, installed off Japan
• The wind industry continues to deliver value to enhance wind’s cost competitiveness and efficiency with steady improvements in the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE). Since 2016, offshore wind particularly has pushed LCoE reductions well in excess of 60%
Image Source: PPIGFLF Volume 3 6 Executive Summary - Continued• As we approach our publishing deadline a couple of notable developments. First, BP • Offshore wind energy is quickly becoming a relevant adjacent industrial sector to offshore oil advanced their offshore wind growth strategy with 3 GW of advantaged leases in the Irish and gas for numerous supply chain companies. Their advanced engineering capabilities, Sea. BP and partner EnBW were selected as preferred bidder for two highly-advantaged project management skills and technology solutions will be required to meet rapid demand 60-year leases in UK’s first offshore wind leasing round in a decade. These leases are growth over the two decades and beyond. As spending on renewable energy, particularly ‘Advantaged’ leases due to distance from shore, lower grid cost, synergies from scale, and offshore wind accelerates, Floating projects will make up a growing share of overall activity
faster cycle time
• Second, BW Offshore announced its clean energy plans through a potential strategic investment in Floating designer Ideol as they pursue their long-term clean energy plans and high ambition for investing in Floating offshore wind. Sources report that BW Offshore acquired a 50% stake in Ideol for $72 million and the new entity will be known as BW Ideol
• France is backing 750 MW of floating wind projects in a dedicated tender slated for 2021- 2022. Norway recently announced the opening of two areas for offshore wind, offering the possibility of 4,500 MW. In Asia-Pacific, South Korea has demonstrated leading initiatives in floating wind, and neighboring Japan will imminently take far-reaching steps toward large-scale commercial developments. Longer-term, the U.S. West Coast will play a large role in Floating wind, with offshore lease auctions from BOEM believed to be imminent. State incentives increasingly are a driver for Floating offshore wind. Of note, New York’s ambitious target to reach 100% renewable energy generation by 2030. While California’s efforts to generate 33% of its electricity from solar, wind and other renewable energy was met in 2019
• In Asia Pacific, Taiwan and South Korea are accelerating their Floating activity levels. Asia Pacific’s total addressable market to 2035 stands at $42 billion in CapEx which denotes a 44% share of the world total. Out of 11,108 MW forecast, the bulk lie in South Korea, followed by Japan (25%), Taiwan (18%) and Saudi Arabia (5%)Although China in new to Floating Wind, we see several ‘Demonstrator’ projects under way to be delivered in 2022- 2023. Image Source: EquinorGFLF Volume 3 7 This slide intentionally left blankGFLF Volume 3 12 1. Q F W E c o n o m i c s – M a c r o M a r ke t Pe r s p e c t i v e in a Global ContextGFLF Volume 3 13
SAMPLE BROCHURE. Renewables are considered one of the primary fuels to satisfy the world’s growing energy demand and wind is a vital component. Many countries are looking-to offshore as a more beneficial effective environment to harvest larger volumes of wind energy. Historically, offshore wind farms are primarily developed with ‘Bottom
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